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There is no doubt that the geostrategic and market policies of some large countries are increasing the uncertainties on world trade in goods, including energy. Then there are local crises, that block or slow down the production, with impacts on the entire system.
The worldwide expansion of LNG market, which is only possible with shipping transport, is a direct consequence of economic globalization. As a primary commodity it risks price stability.
This is not impacting the construction of liquefaction plants, and it is now recognized that natural gas (and LNG) is all we need and much more. The crises impact on the choice of suppliers and on the routes, being able to determine different costs compared to those possible in an open and competitive market. Moreover, the new Russian and Australian productions can more than compensate the slowdown in US exports to new large consumers such as China and India.
Even if the consumption of liquid methane is still a small part of the LNG market, it can be affected by the uncertainties just mentioned and this has an impact on the investment choices. However, these fears are opposed by a certainty: the role in the energy transition of the small scale LNG, today able to replace oil in almost all its residual uses, such as transport and petrochemistry .
The role of LNG - which is a fossil fuel - is now being pushed by the development of micro and mini liquefaction technologies that make possible the widespread production of bioGNL (from agricultural waste, zootechnical waste, organic waste) to be mixed with the one produced with gas from the reservoir. BioGNL has zero environmental impact and is considered a renewable source. Its use allows the LNG to respect even the most stringent emission limits, such as those set by the IMO for the CO2 of the maritime traffic to 2050.
Meanwhile, it is rapidly approaching the time (January 1, 2020) when the sulfur content of marine fuels can not exceed 0.5%. In a few days AIDAnova, the first cruise ship that will use LNG both in ports and offshore, will enter in service. It will navigate in the Seas of Northern Europe, where the penetration of LNG has been guided by the choice of the 0.1% sulfur limit since 2015, which the European countries facing the Mediterranean have not had the courage to follow.
However, Spain and France are rapidly adapting their LNG refueling infrastructures and the Italian delay appears to be increasingly serious. The next LNG ships arriving in the Mediterranean will not know where and how to refuel along the national coasts and will have to use ship-to-ship systems from Spain and France or from Malta and Gibraltar that are also equipping themselves with these infrastructures
Dramatic the situation of Southern Italy, also penalized in the heavy land transport sector. In a few days the LNG ferry built in Turkey for Caronte & Tourist will be on line, and it is absurd to think that it will have to refuel in the Strait of Messina with trucks coming from Marseilles!
However, this situation can have a positive impact, stimulating the production of bioGNL in the South of Italy in competition with the creation of medium-large coastal deposits, of which there is no trace, with the exception of the one in Naples. A good challenge that will certainly be discussed at the next Euro-Mediterranean Conference & Expo on the direct uses of small-scale LNG, scheduled in Naples on 15 and 16 May 2019.
